Ford crisis: thoughts of selling Volvo

Ford Motor announced today that it was evaluating its options for its Volvo subsidiary, including the "possible sale" of its loss-making Swedish premium brand. In fact, according to the Wall Street Journal , Ford is intentioned to concentrate and focalize on their main brand, after having already disposed Jaguar and Land Rover. Volvo was acquired by the American Group in 1999 from Swedish Ab Volvo. 

Experiencing a continuous decrease in market share and sales, the disposal of the Swedish brand seemed the most probable solution. It must be noted, though, that already the previous year this option was taken into consideration, but shortly left aside as Ford's CEO, Alan Mulally, said that it had plans to relaunch the brand. Nevertheless Volvo's sales in the United States continuously plunged, decreasing 52% in October and 28% during the firs ten months of 2008. 

Due to this reason, Mulally declared that considering today's financial context together with Ford's external problems, it is vital evaluating any possible solution for the future of Volvo, strong worldwide player, which is experiencing a difficult period.

Ford must thus pay extreme attention in analyzing every possible outcome and effectively evaluate whether the disposal of Volvo really incorporates part of an effective strategy in order to come out of this negative situation.

Oil price sinks again

A strong fall was registered by the WTI this morning during the first moments of opening at the New York Stock Exchange. The instant drop came short after the announcement by the Opec countries of the postponement to mid December to cut the general oil aupply and production. WTI contracts expiring in January lost only this morning 6.7%, where as the Brent's price, always expiring in January, plunged 6.39% at a price of $50.07 per barrel.

The oil cartel, which controls 40% of the world's production, said oil demand was weakwning fast, but agreed to wait until a meetin in Oran, Algeria, on December 17 to reduce further its output.

Further, Abdallah el-Badri, Opec's segretary-general, said that the reunion in Cairo was put into place as the Oil price reached its lowest levels in four years. As a consequence, most of the Opec countries believed that previously made cuts of 1.5 milliions of barrels were insufficient in order to "calm-down" price fluctuations.

Ryanair's bid on Aer Lingus

During these times of financial turmoil, there are companies searching for extra funds in order to survive where as other companies think that the merger solution in the only way out.
Today, Ryanair, one of the most successful airlines during the last 10 years, placed a fresh bid on rival Aer Lingus for €750m, or just half of what it offered two years ago in an approach thwarted by European regulators.

Today's bid, though, represents part of the recent spate of airline mergers, which means that there is greater probability of success. Ryanair, who already owns 29.82% of Aer Lingus, proposed a all-cash offer at €1.40 per share, representing a 28% premium over the avergae price fo Aer Lingus shaeres during the last month.

Since the announcement, Aer Lingus shares were trading 14.3% higher, where as Ryanair's shares were just 2% lower, trading at €2.87. Ryanair's CEO, Michael O'Leary, said that the economic and regulatory scenarion had changed completely since the Ryanair's last move on the Dublin based airline.

As it was precised in the offer document, Ryanair's intentions over the next five years are to double the size of the company creating as a consequence more than 1000 new jobs. Apart cost savings and increased efficiency, Ryanair's detailed intentions represent one of the major issues why the two companies should merger. At this point, the remaining unknown factor is whether financial regulators and shareholder will accept this offer or not.

UK anti-recession plan

Gordon Brown announced on the 14th of November an anti-recession plan, strategically based on tax cuts for low income families and further slashes on interest rates. By this mean, the Prime Minister intends to lead Britain out of this econmical downturn.

As suggested by the plan, the Prime Minister suggests that the government would use tax credits to help low income families as they represent the goup of people most likelty to spend any money handed out.

Further, Mr. Brown criticized the late rection of the Bank of England and the Eurpean central Bank in cutting interest rates, compared to the Fed's immediate cut to 1%. In fact, during the G20 economic summit, Brown underlined UK's intentions to reinforce interest rates cuts with a fiscal stimulus, funded by borrowing in order to bailout the country.

Nevertheless, we will have to wait for Chancellor Alistair Darling to unveal tax cuts or spending rises in his pre-Budget report on the 24 November.

Porsche-Volkswagen: boomerang effect on short sellers

Since the beginning of the year, the Volkswagen Group has been the only player of its industry to register a substantial increase in the market capitalization. After all during past weeks Volkswagen experienced an inverse trend compared to the market, with daily fluctuations of up to 50%. The reason behind such events was Porsche's intention to increase its shareholding within the Group.

On the 27th of October,  Volkswagen shares registered a phenomenal increase (+146,62%) reaching 520 euros per share. The following day, the German car maker became for moments first worldwide in terms of market capitalization. In fact, the Group's shares continuously rose throughout the whole trading day recording an increase of 93%, at 1005 euros. 

It must be noted that the reasons behind such fluctuations weren't though linked with stock exchange speculations. Soon after Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in September, ignites a wave of short selling. Considering that Porsche announced that it owns, among shares and options, 74,1% of Volkswagen's shareholding and that  the State of Lower Saxony owns 20,1%, it means that the free-float amounts to just 5%. As a consequence, as investors firmly believed that a share price of 200 euros was already highly overvalued, starting therefore a short-selling wave, found themselves having to cover numerous short positions. 

During the day, the biggest names among investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and SocGen, reported sharp drops in share prices mainly due to this unpredicted announcement by Porsche.

Finally, BaFin, the German financial regulator, said it was monitoring VW's share price and was looking into trading patterns but had not opened a formal inquiry. 

"Big three" or "Big two"?

The global financial crisis is dangerously affecting the real economy: in this context, the major US car makers, or "the big three", are currently arranging partnerships and disposals of assets in order to cope with the slump in sales. Over the past week, two companies dominated the headlines worldwide: according to the Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, it appears that General Motors and Chrysler are currently talking about a possible merger.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Cerberus Capital Management, which owns 80.1% of Chrysler's outstanding shares and 51% of its financing arm GMAC, proposed to General Motors the exchange of the car division for the remaining stake in GMAC; whereas according to The New York Times the two companies will merge.

Moreover negotiators hope to finalize a merger agreement between General Motors and Chrysler before the presidential election and are lobbying for government financial assistance to secure the deal.

Lately GM, its lenders and Cerberus Capital Management have been trying to boost investors' confidence with a pitch about the transaction. It portrayed a GM-Chrysler with cost savings of up to $10 billion, an immediate boost in revenue and an increase in cash-flows
The risks of bankruptcy are so high for both of the companies that together they hope to get out of this black period with fewer wounds. "The combined market share (36%) would be too large for the Government to let go bankrupt" said David Cole, CEO of the Automotive Research centre for the USA. The importance of this industry has already been underlined by Bush's administration, which has recently assigned $25 bn to the automotive industry for the research and development of "greener” technologies.

Finally, according to the Financial Times, Ford and Chrysler are currently offering discounts on the newest models so as to boost sales of trucks in North of America. In fact Ford will sell its 2009 F-150 $2,500 below its starting price, whereas some of Chrysler's dealers are selling the Dodge Ram with a $2,000 discount. Sales of the F-150, Ford's most popular car since 31 years, plumbed 39% in September on an annual basis compared to "just" 28% registered for the Dodge Ram.

Only one question remains in our minds: will a merger be the correct move yo save two of the most powerful players in the car industry?

IMF: the crisis will cost $1400 bn

During the past weeks, markets experienced and are still experiencing what it could be called one of the toughest periods in the past decade. In fact, according to the IMF the crisis will cost $1400 bn, well above the figure of $945 estimated by the Fund earlier in April. Already in September losses amounted to $760 bn, out of which banks were responsible for $580 bn.     

"With financial markets worldwide facing growing turmoil, internationally coherent and decisive policy measures will be required to restore confidence in the global financial system" said the IMF in the Global Financial Stability Report. 

Finally, the IMF said that the worst affected economies were at the same time the most sophisticated ones. The explanation relies in the fact that the bigger and the more sophisticated a financial system is, the more money it can borrow, which represents at the same time an increase in the impact of the consequent credit crunch.

"Yet despite its predictions of a more protracted global economic slowdown, the IMF says that there is still the risk of inflation."